List of illustrations Preface // Acknowledgments List of abbreviations // 1 Introduction: China’s biophysical foundations // My Chinese experiences 1 Challenges of understanding 4 Interdisciplinary perspectives 7 // 2 Energy // Half a century of advances 9 // The continuing importance of traditional energies 27 // A failed strategy 42 // From a new Saudi Arabia to concerns about oil security 52 A remarkable shift in energy intensities 60 // 3 Food // The world’s greatest famine 73 From subsistence to satiety 87 Dietary transitions 99 Nitrogen in China’s agriculture 109 Can China feed itself? 120 // 4 Environment // Attitudes and constraints 142 Thefirst of the five elements 152 China’s environment and security 168 The cost of China’s environmental change 178 Megaprojects and China’s environment 190 // x Contents // 5 Looking ahead by looking back 207 // Failedforecasts 207 Contending trends 212 // Appendix 216 // Bibliography 217 // Index 229