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EB

EB

ONLINE

Oxford : Oxford University Press, 2013

1 online zdroj : ilustrace

ISBN 9780191757136 (e-kniha)

Print version ISBN 9780199596614

Popsáno podle dat dodaných poskytovatelem

001481684

Acknowledgements v» Preface viii // 1. Containing the Spread of Epidemics i // 1.1 Introduction 2 // 1.2 Disease Control in Italy: The Plague Centuries, // 1342-1851 2 // Surveillance 3 Cordon Sanitaire 4 Quarantine and Isolation 8 Foreward Planning and Control 10 13 Prato, 1630 11 // 1.4 Models of Control 13 Spatial Mass Action Models 13 Barriers to Spread 13 Sicily, 1743: The Plague of Messina 15 1-5 Conclusion 17 Appendix 1.1: Map Sources 18 // 2. The Surveillance of Communicable Diseases 21 // 2.1 Introduction 22 Layout of Chapter 22 // 2.2 Disease Classification and Recording: // General Considerations 22 Disease Classifications 22 // Disease Collecting Systems 24 Time Span of Disease Records 24 Sources of Disease Data 24 // 2.3 Early Surveillance Systems: Local Bills of Mortality 24 The London Bills of Mortality 24 // Bills for Other Cities: Continental Europe and North America 29 // 2.4 National Surveillance: The United States 30 // Background 30 // Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR). 1952-2005 32 Primary Data Generation 32 // 2.5 International Health Cooperation: Before the League of Nations 37 // Proto-Systems: Regional Health Bodies in the Nineteenth Century 37 // The Office International d’Hygiéne Publique (1907-46) 38 The International (Pan American) Sanitary Bureau 42 // 2.6 Wireless Technologies: The League of Nations Health Organisation (1923-46) 42 // The Epidemiological Intelligence Service 43 Expanding Horizons and New Technologies The Eastern Bureau 43 // 2.7 Wireless to Internet: The World Health Organization (1946-) 47 // Epidemiological Intelligence and Surveillance, 1940s- 1970s 48 International Patterns of Communicable Disease Surveillance, 1923-83 50 // Developments in Programme-Oriented Surveillance 55 Twenty-First-Century Approaches: Electronic Network Systems for Global Disease Detection 57 //

2.8 Evolving Surveillance Practices 60 // Informal Internet-Based Global Reporting Systems 60 Regional Disease Threat Tracking Tools: The European Commission 61 Sentinel Practices 61 // 2.9 Conclusion 62 // Appendix 2.1: Communicable Disease Categories 62 // 3. Quarantine: Spatial Strategies 64 // 3.1 Introduction 65 Quarantine 65 Isolation 65 // 3.2 History of Quarantine 65 // International Sanitary and Health Regulations 65 Quarantine: The United States, 1878-2010 66 Quarantine Islands 73 // 3.3 Isolation 75 Isolation: Theory 75 Isolation: Practice 77 // 3.4 Quarantine and Isolation Today 87 The Role of Movement 87 // Communicable Disease Consequences of Change 89 Estimating the Impact of Quarantine and Isolation 91 Summary 97 // 3.5 Conclusion 97 // 4. Vaccination: Interrupting Spatial Disease Transmission 98 // 4.1 Introduction 99 // 4.2 History of Vaccination 99 // Early Vaccine Developments to 1900 99 Post-1900 Developments 102 // 4.3 Vaccination Strategies and Disease Control 102 // Critical Community Size, Vaccination and Disease Elimination 102 Vaccination Impact on Epidemic Cycles 102 Ring Vaccination Strategies 105 // 4.4 Global Programmes: The Expanded Programme on Immunization (ЕРІ) 106 // EPI and the Global Immunization Vision and Strategy (GIVS) 106 Trends in Global Vaccine Coverage 107 Regional Contexts: WHO Western Pacific Region 108 Beyond the EPI: Towards Second-Generation Programmes’ 109 // 4.5 National Programmes: Mass Vaccination and Disease Elimination in the United States 109 Poliomyelitis 109 // Measles 113 // Economic Evaluations of Vaccination Programmes 115 // 4.6 Vaccination Risks 115 Faulty Vaccines 115 // False Alarms and Declining Herd Immunity 116 Spatially Heterogeneous Vaccination Uptake 120 // 4.7 Conclusion 121 // Appendix 4,1: Vaccine Developments 121 // 5. Eradication 124 // 5.1 Introduction 125 //

Defining Eradication 126 Indicators of Eradicability 127 Spatial Strategies for Eradication 127 // 5.2 Smallpox Eradication 128 The Eradication Campaign 128 Smallpox as a Model for Eradication 128 // 5.3 The Global Polio Eradication Initiative 130 Progress Towards Eradication (1988-2010) 131 Obstacles to Eradication 132 // Global Eradication and the Strategic Plan 2010-12 134 The Long-Term Benefits of Eradication 135 // 5.4 Other Global Eradication Campaigns 136 Campaigns Underway: Dracunculiasis 136 Failed Campaigns 137 // 5.5 Prospects for Future Eradication 139 International Task Force for Disease Eradication (ITFDE) 139 Regional Elimination Campaigns: Measles 140 // 5.6 Hostile Threats: Disease Eradication and Bioterrorism 143 Smallpox 143 Poliomyelitis 144 // 5.7 Towards Extinction 144 // The Destruction of Known Variola Virus Stocks 145 // 5.8 Conclusion 145 // 6. Intervention: Modelling, Demographic Impact and the Public Health 147 // 6.1 Introduction 148 // 6.2 The Basic Reproduction Number, R0 148 // Herd Immunity 149 // Spanish Influenza: Australia. 1918-19 149 // Pandemic Influenza A/Swine/H1N 1,2009 152 // 6.3 The Spatial Basic Reproduction Number, Rw 153 Swash-Backwash Models 153 // Cyclical Re-Emergence: Spotting Influenza Pandemics 155 // Pandemic Detection 163 // Swash Model and Other Infectious Diseases 164 // 6.4 Forecasting for Intervention 165 Iceland as an Epidemiological Laboratory 165 Lag Maps 168 // Models of Disease Spread 169 SIR Models 170 // Spatial Time Series Approaches 170 Model Assessment 173 // 6.5 Intervention, Value-for-Money and Demography 174 Measuring Intervention Impacts 174 // Global Immunization Vision and Strategy: Intervention Costs and Benefits 175 // 6.6 Conclusion 177 // Appendix 6.1: Swash-Backwash Model Equations 178 // References and Author Index 179 Index 189