Historical Note ix // Preface xi // Introduction i // I The Anti-Naturalistic Doctrines of Historicism 4 // 1 Generalization 5 // 2 Experiment 7 // 3 Novelty 8 // 4 Complexity 10 // 5 Inexactitude of Predidion 11 // 6 Objectivity and Valuation 12 // 7 Holism 15 // 8 Intuitive Understanding 17 // 9 Quantitative Methods 21 // ? Essentialism versus Nominalism 23 // II The Pro-Naturalistic Doctrines of Historicism 31 // n Comparison with Astronomy. Long-Term Forecasts // and Large-Scale Forecasts 32 // 12 The Observational Basis 34 // 13 Social Dynamics 35 // 14 Historical Laws 36 // 15 Historical Prophecy versus Social Engineering 37 // 16 The Theory of Historical Development 40 // 17 Interpreting versus Planning Social Change 44 // 18 Conclusion of the Analysis 46 // III Criticism of the Anti-Naturalistic Doctrines 50 // 19 Practical Aims of this Criticism 50 // 20 The Technological Approach to Sociology 53 // 21 Piecemeal versus Utopian Engineering 58 // 22 The Unholy Alliance with Utopianism 65 // 23 Criticism of Holism 70 // 24 The Holistic Theory of Social Experiments 76 // 25 The Variability of Experimental Conditions 85 // 26 Are Generalizations Confined to Periods? 89 // IV Criticism of the Pro-Naturalistic Doctrines 96 // 27 Is there a Law of Evolution? Laws and Trends 96 // 28 The Method of Reduction. Causal Explanation. Prediction and Prophecy // 29 The Unity of Method 120 // 30 Theoretical and Historical Sciences 132 // 31 Situational Logic in History. Historical Interpretation 136 // 32 The Institutional Theory of Progress 141 // 33 Conclusion. The Emotional Appeal of Historicism 148 // Index 150