Univerzitní knihovna OU - Úplné zobrazení záznamu

1 Introduction... 1 // Nico Keilman and Stefano Mazzuco // 2 Stochastic Population Forecasting: A Bayesian Approach Based on Evaluation by Experts... 21 // Rebecca Graziani // 3 Using Expert Elicitation to Build Long-Term Projection Assumptions... 43 // Patrice Dion, Nora Galbraith, and Elham Sirag // 4 Post-transitional Demography and Convergence: What Can We Learn from Half a Century of World Population Prospects? 63 // Maria Castiglioni, Gianpiero Dalla-Zuanna, and Maria Letizia Tanturri // 5 Projecting Proportionate Age-Specific Fertility Rates via Bayesian Skewed Processes... 89 // Emanuele Aliverti, Daniele Durante, and Bruno Scarpa // 6 A Three-Component Approach to Model and Forecast Age-at-Death Distributions... 105 // Ugofilippo Basellini and Carlo Giovanni Camarda // 7 Alternative Forecasts of Danish Life Expectancy... 131 // Marie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher, S0ren Kjaergaard, Marius D. Pascariu, // José Manuel Aburto, Jesús-Adrián Alvarez, Ugofilippo Basellini, // Silvia Rizzi, and James W. Vaupel // 8 Coherent Mortality Forecasting with Standards: Low Mortality Serves as a Guide... 153 // Heather Booth // 9 European Mortality Forecasts: Are the Targets Still Moving? 179 // Nico Keilman and Sigve Kristoffersen // 10 Bayesian Disaggregated Forecasts: Internal Migration in Iceland 193 // Junni L. Zhang and John Bryant // 11 Forecasting Origin-Destination-Age-Sex Migration Flow Tables with Multiplicative Components...217 // James Raymer, Xujing Bai, and Peter W. F. Smith // 12 New Approaches to the Conceptualization and Measurement of Age and Ageing... 243 // Sergei Scherbov and Warren C. Sanderson

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