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Berlin, Heidelberg : Springer Berlin / Heidelberg, 2016

1 online resource (282 pages)

ISBN 9783662489598 (electronic bk.)

ISBN 9783662489574

Earth Systems Data and Models Ser. ; v.2

Print version: Gettelman, Andrew Demystifying Climate Models Berlin, Heidelberg : Springer Berlin / Heidelberg,c2016 ISBN 9783662489574

Intro -- Acknowledgments -- Contents -- About the Authors -- Introduction -- Part I Basic Principles and the Problem of Climate Forecasts -- 1 Key Concepts in Climate Modeling -- 1.1 What Is Climate? -- 1.2 What Is a Model? -- 1.3 Uncertainty -- 1.3.1 Model Uncertainty -- 1.3.2 Scenario Uncertainty -- 1.3.3 Initial Condition Uncertainty -- 1.3.4 Total Uncertainty -- 1.4 Summary -- 2 Components of the Climate System -- 2.1 Components of the Earth System -- 2.1.1 The Atmosphere -- 2.1.2 The Ocean and Sea Ice -- 2.1.3 Terrestrial Systems -- 2.2 Timescales and Interactions -- 2.3 Summary -- 3 Climate Change and Global Warming -- 3.1 Coupling of the Pieces -- 3.2 Forcing the Climate System -- 3.3 Climate History -- 3.4 Understanding Where the Energy Goes -- 3.5 Summary -- 4 Essence of a Climate Model -- 4.1 Scientific Principles in Climate Models -- 4.2 Basic Formulation and Constraints -- 4.2.1 Finite Pieces -- 4.2.2 Processes -- 4.2.3 Marching Forward in Time -- 4.2.4 Examples of Finite Element Models -- 4.3 Coupled Models -- 4.4 A Brief History of Climate Models -- 4.5 Computational Aspects of Climate Modeling -- 4.5.1 The Computer Program -- 4.5.2 Running a Model -- 4.6 Summary -- Part II Model Mechanics -- 5 Simulating the Atmosphere -- 5.1 Role of the Atmosphere in Climate -- 5.2 Types of Atmospheric Models -- 5.3 General Circulation -- 5.4 Parts of an Atmosphere Model -- 5.4.1 Clouds -- 5.4.2 Radiative Energy -- 5.4.3 Chemistry -- 5.5 Weather Models Versus Climate Models -- 5.6 Challenges for Atmospheric Models -- 5.6.1 Uncertain and Unknown Processes -- 5.6.2 Scales -- 5.6.3 Feedbacks -- 5.6.4 Cloud Feedback -- 5.7 Applications: Impacts of Tropical Cyclones -- 5.8 Summary -- 6 Simulating the Ocean and Sea Ice -- 6.1 Understanding the Ocean -- 6.1.1 Structure of the Ocean -- 6.1.2 Forcing of the Ocean -- 6.2 "Limited" Ocean Models.

12 Usability of Climate Model Projections by Practitioners -- 12.1 Knowledge Systems -- 12.2 Interpretation and Translation -- 12.2.1 Barriers to the Use of Climate Model Projections -- 12.2.2 Downscaled Datasets -- 12.2.3 Climate Assessments -- 12.2.4 Expert Analysis -- 12.3 Uncertainty -- 12.3.1 Ensembles -- 12.3.2 Uncertainty in Assessment Reports -- 12.4 Framing Uncertainty -- 12.5 Summary -- 13 Summary and Final Thoughts -- 13.1 What Is Climate? -- 13.2 Key Features of a Climate Model -- 13.3 Components of the Climate System -- 13.3.1 The Atmosphere -- 13.3.2 The Ocean -- 13.3.3 Terrestrial Systems -- 13.3.4 Coupled Components -- 13.4 Evaluation and Uncertainty -- 13.4.1 Evaluation -- 13.4.2 Uncertainty -- 13.5 What We Know (and Do not Know) -- 13.6 The Future of Climate Modeling -- 13.6.1 Increasing Resolution -- 13.6.2 New and Improved Processes -- 13.6.3 Challenges -- 13.7 Final Thoughts -- Climate Modeling Text Glossary -- Index.

8.4.5 Carbon Cycle and Climate -- 8.5 Challenges -- 8.6 Applications: Integrated Assessment of Water Resources -- 8.7 Summary -- Part III Using Models -- 9 Model Evaluation -- 9.1 Evaluation Versus Validation -- 9.1.1 Evaluation and Missing Information -- 9.1.2 Observations -- 9.1.3 Model Improvement -- 9.2 Climate Model Evaluation -- 9.2.1 Types of Comparisons -- 9.2.2 Model Simulations -- 9.2.3 Using Model Evaluation to Guide Further Observations -- 9.3 Predicting the Future: Forecasts Versus Projections -- 9.3.1 Forecasts -- 9.3.2 Projections -- 9.4 Applications of Climate Model Evaluation: Ozone Assessment -- 9.5 Summary -- 10 Predictability -- 10.1 Knowledge and Key Uncertainties -- 10.1.1 Physics of the System -- 10.1.2 Variability -- 10.1.3 Sensitivity to Changes -- 10.2 Types of Uncertainty and Timescales -- 10.2.1 Predicting the Near Term: Initial Condition Uncertainty -- 10.2.2 Predicting the Next 30-50 Years: Scenario Uncertainty -- 10.2.3 Predicting the Long Term: Model Uncertainty Versus Scenario Uncertainty -- 10.3 Ensembles: Multiple Models and Simulations -- 10.4 Applications: Developing and Using Scenarios -- 10.5 Summary -- 11 Results of Current Models -- 11.1 Organization of Climate Model Results -- 11.2 Prediction and Uncertainty -- 11.2.1 Goals of Prediction -- 11.2.2 Uncertainty -- 11.2.3 Why Models? -- 11.3 What Is the Confidence in Predictions? -- 11.3.1 Confident Predictions -- 11.3.1.1 Temperature -- 11.3.1.2 Precipitation -- 11.3.2 Uncertain Predictions: Where to Be Cautious -- 11.3.3 Bad Predictions -- 11.3.4 How Do We Predict Extreme Events? -- 11.4 Climate Impacts and Extremes -- 11.4.1 Tropical Cyclones -- 11.4.2 Stream Flow and Extreme Events -- 11.4.3 Electricity Demand and Extreme Events -- 11.5 Application: Climate Model Impacts in Colorado -- 11.6 Summary.

6.3 Ocean General Circulation Models -- 6.3.1 Topography and Grids -- 6.3.2 Deep Ocean -- 6.3.3 Eddies in the Ocean -- 6.3.4 Surface Ocean -- 6.3.5 Structure of an Ocean Model -- 6.3.6 Ocean Versus Atmosphere Models -- 6.4 Sea-Ice Modeling -- 6.5 The Ocean Carbon Cycle -- 6.6 Challenges -- 6.6.1 Challenges in Ocean Modeling -- 6.6.2 Challenges in Sea Ice Modeling -- 6.7 Applications: Sea-Level Rise, Norfolk, Virginia -- 6.8 Summary -- 7 Simulating Terrestrial Systems -- 7.1 Role of the Land Surface in Climate -- 7.1.1 Precipitation and the Water Cycle -- 7.1.2 Vegetation -- 7.1.3 Ice and Snow -- 7.1.4 Human Impacts -- 7.2 Building a Land Surface Simulation -- 7.2.1 Evolution of a Terrestrial System Model -- 7.2.2 Biogeophysics: Surface Fluxes and Heat -- 7.2.3 Biogeophysics: Hydrology -- 7.2.4 Ecosystem Dynamics (Vegetation and Land Cover/Use Change) -- 7.2.5 Summary: Structure of a Land Model -- 7.3 Biogeochemistry: Carbon and Other Nutrient Cycles -- 7.4 Land-Atmosphere Interactions -- 7.5 Land Ice -- 7.6 Humans -- 7.7 Integrated Assessment Models -- 7.8 Challenges in Terrestrial System Modeling -- 7.8.1 Ice Sheet Modeling -- 7.8.2 Surface Albedo Feedback -- 7.8.3 Carbon Feedback -- 7.9 Applications: Wolf and Moose Ecosystem, Isle Royale National Park -- 7.10 Summary -- 8 Bringing the System Together: Coupling and Complexity -- 8.1 Types of Coupled Models -- 8.1.1 Regional Models -- 8.1.2 Statistical Models and Downscaling -- 8.1.3 Integrated Assessment Models -- 8.2 Coupling Models Together: Common Threads -- 8.3 Key Interactions in Climate Models -- 8.3.1 Intermixing of the Feedback Loops -- 8.3.2 Water Feedbacks -- 8.3.3 Albedo Feedbacks -- 8.3.4 Ocean Feedbacks -- 8.3.5 Sea-Level Change -- 8.4 Coupled Modes of Climate Variability -- 8.4.1 Tropical Cyclones -- 8.4.2 Monsoons -- 8.4.3 El Nino -- 8.4.4 Precipitation and the Land Surface.

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