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Singapore : World Scientific Publishing Company, 2018

1 online resource (678 pages)

ISBN 9789813278356 (electronic bk.)

ISBN 9789813278349

World Scientific Series In Grand Public Policy Challenges Of The 21st Century ; v.2

Print version: Serraj, Rachid Agriculture & Food Systems To 2050: Global Trends, Challenges And Opportunities Singapore : World Scientific Publishing Company,c2018 ISBN 9789813278349

Intro -- Contents -- Foreword -- About the Editors -- List of Contributors -- Part I - Agriculture and Food Systems: Looking towards 2030/2050 -- Chapter 1 - Agriculture and Food Systems to 2050: A Synthesis -- 1.1 Introduction -- 1.2 Urbanization, Demographic Transitions, and the Transformation of Smallholder Farming -- 1.3 Climate Change and Agri-Food Systems -- 1.4 Food Systems for Better Nutrition and Health -- 1.5 Sustainable and Resilient Farming Systems -- 1.6 New Science and Technology for Managing Systemic Complexity and Trade-offs -- 1.7 Conclusions -- References -- Chapter 2 - Global Drivers and Megatrends in Agri-Food Systems -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 Approaches to Foresight -- 2.3 A Brief Overview of Recent Foresight Studies on Food Security and Agri-Food Systems -- 2.3.1 Methodological approach -- 2.3.2 Food, human nutrition, and diets -- 2.3.3 Agro-environmental futures -- 2.3.4 Technology and innovation for sustainable food systems -- 2.3.5 Gaining insights into food system analyses through combined quantitative modeling and qualitative approaches -- 2.3.6 Advantages of participatory techniques -- 2.3.7 Adaptation pathways -- 2.4 Relevant Drivers in Agri-Food System Analyses -- 2.5 Megatrends and Less-Explored Areas in Food System Analyses -- 2.5.1 Fourteen megatrends identified through the Megatrends Hub -- 2.5.2 Underexplored trends in recent foresight work -- 2.6 Conclusions -- References -- Part II - Food System Threats and Challenges -- Chapter 3 - Migration, Demography, and Agri-Food Systems -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 Traditional Pathways and Emerging Trends -- 3.3 Demographic Trends: Rural and Youth Population Projections -- 3.4 Rural-Urban Migration Trends -- 3.4.1 Data gaps and challenges -- 3.4.2 Methodology -- 3.4.2.1 Projections of migration rates -- 3.4.2.2 Youth migration rates.

10.5.5 Regional sustainable development -- 10.6 Concluding Remarks -- 10.6.1 Potential breakthrough technologies in light of the Grand Societal Challenges -- 10.6.2 Potential breakthrough technologies in the light of future scenarios -- 10.6.3 Insights and recommendations for further research -- References -- Chapter 11 - Investor Perspectives on Future Priorities -- Overview -- 11.1 Current State of Capital Flows to African Agriculture -- 11.1.1 The investment ladder for SME agribusinesses -- 11.1.2 Incubators and accelerators -- 11.1.3 Commercial banks -- 11.1.4 Impact investors -- 11.1.5 The missing middle in the investment ladder -- 11.2 Future Priorities for Commercial Investors -- 11.2.1 Constraints to investment -- 11.2.1.1 Lack of infrastructure -- 11.2.1.2 Deficiencies in the broader value chain -- 11.2.1.3 Limited deal flow -- 11.2.1.4 Position on the cost curve -- 11.2.1.5 Insufficient supply of talent for managing large-scale agricultural operations -- 11.2.1.6 High environment, social, and governance (ESG) risk -- 11.2.2 Lessons from the past -- 11.2.2.1 Analysis of CDC’s agriculture investments in Africa (1948-1998) -- 11.2.3 Current trends and opportunities for the future -- 11.2.3.1 Choice of country -- 11.2.3.2 Distribution of new agribusiness investments in Africa by segment -- 11.2.3.3 Choice of commodity -- 11.3 Creating Shared Value in African Agriculture -- 11.3.1 Development thesis of impact investors -- 11.3.1.1 Agricultural development -- 11.3.1.2 Rural job creation -- 11.3.1.3 Development of the agri-food sector -- 11.3.2 Key agricultural development models -- 11.3.3 Value-chain clusters and creating shared value -- 11.3.3.1 Fostering clusters and enhancing entire value chains -- 11.3.3.2 Creating shared value (CSV) through reconnecting business and society -- 11.3.3.3 Responding to growing resource constraints.

3.4.2.3 Aggregation of migration rates -- 3.4.2.4 Methodological assumptions and their implications -- 3.4.3 Projections of rural-urban migration rates -- 3.4.3.1 Global view -- 3.4.3.2 Rural-urban migration by gender -- 3.4.3.3 Trends in agri-food systems and rural-urban migration -- 3.5 Climate Change, Migration, and Demography -- 3.6 Seasonal Migration: A Nascent Literature -- 3.7 Conclusions -- Appendix A: Country Groupings -- Appendix B: Methodology for Projections of Rural-Urban (Youth) Migration: Survival Ratio Method -- B.1 Total Population -- B.2 Youth Migration -- References -- Chapter 4 - Urbanization, Agriculture, and Smallholder Farming -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 A Changing Context for Agriculture -- 4.2.1 Increasing urbanization -- 4.2.2 Changing food value chains -- 4.2.3 Growing international trade -- 4.2.4 Changes in the distribution of land -- 4.3 The Future of Small Farms -- 4.3.1 A "reverse" transition -- 4.3.2 Prognosis -- 4.3.3 Diverging livelihood pathways -- 4.4 Implications for Small Farm Policies and Agricultural Research -- 4.4.1 Implications for assisting small farms -- 4.4.2 Implications for agricultural research -- 4.5 Conclusions -- References -- Chapter 5 - Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Agro-climatic Trends and System Responses -- 5.2.1 Observed changes to agricultural climates -- 5.2.2 Direct climate impacts on agricultural systems -- 5.2.3 Indirect mechanisms for agro-climatological impacts -- 5.2.4 Agricultural system influences on the climate system -- 5.3 Projected Climate Changes for Agricultural Regions -- 5.4 Ramifications of Climate Change on the Agricultural Sector -- 5.5 Agricultural Modeling for Climate Vulnerability Foresight -- References -- Chapter 6 - Environment and Natural Resources -- 6.1 Introduction -- 6.2 Freshwater -- 6.3 Land -- 6.4 Phosphorus.

9.4 Applications of Technology to Seasonal Monitoring -- 9.4.1 Case study: Spray application technology for precision agriculture -- 9.4.2 Case study: Variable-rate application -- 9.5 Remote Sensing for Precision Agriculture -- 9.5.1 Aerial multispectral imaging for assessing crop injury from off-target drift of aerially applied glyphosate -- 9.5.2 Case study: Build DSM to estimate plant height -- 9.5.3 Field observation scale optimization and multisource data fusion and assimilation -- 9.6 Precision Agriculture Systems for a -- 9.6.1 Remote-sensing models for precision agriculture-based statistics -- 9.6.2 Spatially specific agricultural statistics (yield, production, area) -- 9.7 Precision Agriculture for Smallholders and Developing Countries -- 9.8 Precision Agriculture in the Next 10 Years -- References -- Chapter 10 - Disruptive Futures: Prospects for Breakthrough Technologies -- 10.1 Introduction -- 10.2 Technology Trends -- 10.2.1 Bioinformatics -- 10.2.2 Smart farming -- 10.2.3 Genetics -- 10.2.4 Synthetic biology -- 10.2.5 Protein transition -- 10.2.6 Food design -- 10.2.7 Aquaculture -- 10.2.8 Vertical agriculture -- 10.2.9 Conservation technology -- 10.3 The Grand Societal Challenges -- 10.4 When Agri-Food Technology Meets the Grand Societal Challenges -- 10.4.1 Health, demographic change, and well-being -- 10.4.2 Secure, clean, and efficient energy -- 10.4.3 Smart, green, and integrated transport -- 10.4.4 Climate action, environment, resource efficiency, and raw materials -- 10.4.5 Europe in a changing world-Inclusive, innovative, and reflective societies -- 10.4.6 Secure societies-Protecting freedom and security of Europe and its citizens -- 10.5 Agri-Food Technology and Future Scenarios -- 10.5.1 Economic optimism -- 10.5.2 Reformed markets -- 10.5.3 Global sustainable development -- 10.5.4 Regional competition.

11.3.3.4 Responding to consumer demands.

6.5 Marine Resources -- 6.6 Ecosystems -- 6.7 Availability of Natural Resources: Scenarios -- 6.8 Broader Context -- 6.9 Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 7 - Food Systems, Diets, and Nutrition -- 7.1 The World’s Many Nutrition Challenges -- 7.2 India as a Case Study -- 7.3 Pathways from Agriculture to Diets and Nutrition -- 7.3.1 Agricultural diversification -- 7.3.2 Irrigation and water availability -- 7.3.3 Water quality -- 7.3.4 Women’s labor use in agriculture -- 7.3.5 Exposure to zoonotic diseases -- 7.3.6 Food safety -- 7.4 Challenges and Opportunities Ahead -- References -- Part III - Technological Innovation and Disruptive Futures -- Chapter 8 - Innovation in Breeding and Biotechnology -- 8.1 Introduction -- 8.2 Background to Genetic Improvement -- 8.3 Sources of Future Genetic Gains -- 8.3.1 Enhancing the efficiency of current breeding technologies -- 8.3.1.1 Expanding the germplasm pool -- 8.3.1.2 Recombination -- 8.3.1.3 Population size -- 8.3.1.4 Heritability -- 8.3.1.5 Breeding cycle -- 8.3.2 Generating major changes in breeding methodologies -- 8.3.2.1 Enhancing photosynthesis -- 8.3.2.2 Transferring nitrogen fixation to non-legume crops -- 8.3.2.3 Hybrid breeding and apomixis -- 8.4 Technology Adoption -- 8.4.1 The production system -- 8.4.2 Technology transfer between species and crops -- 8.4.3 Regulation and acceptance by consumers/governments -- 8.5 Biotechnology in the Improvement of Farm Animals -- 8.5.1 Transgenic animals -- 8.5.2 Genome editing -- 8.5.3 Reproductive technologies -- 8.5.4 Human nutrition, pharmaceutical, and biomedical applications -- 8.5.5 Fish and other seafood -- 8.6 Where to Next? -- 8.7 Conclusions -- References -- Chapter 9 - Advancing to the Next Generation of Precision Agriculture -- 9.1 Introduction -- 9.2 Technological Advances -- 9.3 Worldwide Precision Agriculture.

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(OCoLC)1231605899