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EB

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Cham : Springer International Publishing AG, 2016

1 online resource (555 pages)

ISBN 9783319397450 (electronic bk.)

ISBN 9783319397436

Regional Climate Studies

Print version: Quante, Markus North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment Cham : Springer International Publishing AG,c2016 ISBN 9783319397436

Intro -- Foreword -- Preface -- Acknowledgements -- Contents -- Lead Authors -- Contributing Authors -- Reviewers -- Acronyms and Abbreviations -- About NOSCCA -- Overall Summary -- 1 Introduction to the Assessment-Characteristics of the Region -- Abstract -- 1.1ƒIntroduction -- 1.2ƒNorth Sea and Bounding Countries-A General Overview -- 1.2.1 Geography of the Region -- 1.2.1.1 Catchment Area and Freshwater Supply -- 1.2.1.2 Coastal Types -- 1.2.1.3 Demography -- 1.2.2 Major Human and Economic Activities -- 1.3ƒGeology and Topography of the North Sea -- 1.3.1 Geological and Climatic Evolution of the North Sea Basin -- 1.3.1.1 General Settings -- 1.3.1.2 Permian to Holocene -- 1.3.2 Topography of the North Sea -- 1.4ƒHydrography-Description of North Sea Physics -- 1.4.1 Boundary Forcing -- 1.4.1.1 Atlantic Ocean -- 1.4.1.2 European Continent and Baltic Sea -- 1.4.1.3 Atmosphere -- 1.4.1.4 Seabed -- 1.4.2 Thermohaline Regime -- 1.4.3 Wind-Driven Regime -- 1.4.4 Tidally-Driven Regime -- 1.4.5 Transport Processes -- 1.5ƒCurrent Atmospheric Climate -- 1.5.1 Atmospheric Circulation -- 1.5.1.1 Sea-Level Pressure -- 1.5.1.2 North Atlantic Circulation -- 1.5.2 Wind -- 1.5.2.1 Ship-Based Wind Speed Observations -- 1.5.2.2 Remotely-Sensed Wind Speeds -- 1.5.2.3 Geostrophic Wind Speeds -- 1.5.2.4 Wind Direction -- 1.5.2.5 Sea Breeze -- 1.5.3 Air Temperature -- 1.5.3.1 Monthly and Annual Means -- 1.5.3.2 Extremes -- 1.5.4 Precipitation -- 1.5.4.1 Precipitation Frequency -- 1.5.4.2 Precipitation Amount -- 1.5.5 Radiation -- 1.5.5.1 Sunshine Duration -- 1.5.5.2 Global Radiation -- 1.5.6 Cloud Cover -- 1.6ƒMarine and Coastal Ecosystems -- 1.6.1 Ecological Habitats -- 1.6.1.1 Wadden Sea -- 1.6.1.2 Estuaries and Fjords -- 1.6.1.3 Dogger Bank -- 1.6.1.4 Helgoland, and the Shetland and Orkney Islands -- 1.6.2 Ecosystem Dynamics.

1.6.2.1 Communities, Food Webs and the Seasonal Cycle -- 1.6.2.2 Impacts of Stratification and Mixing -- 1.6.2.3 Carbon and Nutrient Cycles -- 1.6.2.4 Production and Biomass -- 1.6.3 Current Status and Threats -- 1.6.3.1 Eutrophication -- 1.6.3.2 Harmful Algal Blooms -- 1.6.3.3 Offshore Oil and Gas -- 1.6.3.4 Renewable Energy -- 1.6.3.5 Fisheries -- 1.6.3.6 Contaminants -- 1.6.3.7 Tourism -- 1.6.3.8 Ports -- 1.6.3.9 Non-indigenous Species -- 1.6.3.10 Climate Change -- 1.7ƒTerrestrial Coastal Range Vegetation -- 1.7.1 Natural Vegetation -- 1.7.1.1 Salt Marshes -- 1.7.1.2 Dunes -- 1.7.1.3 Moors (Bogs) -- 1.7.1.4 Tundra and Alpine Vegetation -- 1.7.1.5 Forests -- 1.7.2 Semi-natural Vegetation -- 1.7.2.1 Heathlands -- 1.7.2.2 Grasslands -- 1.7.3 Agricultural Areas -- 1.7.4 Artificial Surfaces -- References -- Recent Climate Change (Past 200 Years) -- 2 Recent Change-Atmosphere -- Abstract -- 2.1ƒIntroduction -- 2.2ƒLarge-Scale Circulation -- 2.2.1 Circulation Over the North Sea Region in a Climatological Perspective -- 2.2.2 NAO and AO -- 2.2.3 Temporal and Spatial Changes in the NAO -- 2.2.4 Other Modes of Variability -- 2.2.5 Summary -- 2.3ƒAtmospheric Pressure and Wind -- 2.3.1 Atmospheric Circulation and Wind Since Around 1950 -- 2.3.1.1 North Sea Region -- 2.3.1.2 Northern North Atlantic Region -- 2.3.1.3 Southern North Atlantic Region -- 2.3.2 Regional Variations in Pressure and Wind Since Around 1800 -- 2.3.2.1 North Atlantic and Iceland -- 2.3.2.2 British Isles -- 2.3.2.3 North Sea Region -- 2.3.2.4 Northern Alps and Central Europe -- 2.3.3 Trends in the 20th Century Reanalysis Since 1871 -- 2.3.4 Summary -- 2.4ƒSurface Air Temperature -- 2.4.1 Terrestrial Surface Air Temperature -- 2.4.2 Number of Frost Days and Summer Days -- 2.4.3 Night Marine Air Temperature -- 2.4.4 Comparison of Land and Marine Air Temperatures -- 2.4.5 Summary.

3.11.5 Relevance of Climate Change -- 3.12ƒSummary -- Acknowledgments -- References -- 4 Recent Change-River Flow -- Abstract -- 4.1ƒIntroduction -- 4.2ƒDetecting and Attributing Trends -- 4.3ƒObserved Changes in Annual and Seasonal Flow -- 4.3.1 River Rhine -- 4.3.2 River Elbe -- 4.3.3 River Meuse -- 4.3.4 UK Rivers -- 4.3.5 Scandinavian Rivers -- 4.3.6 Inflow from the Baltic Sea -- 4.4ƒObserved Changes in Peak Flow and Low Flow -- 4.4.1 River Rhine -- 4.4.2 River Elbe -- 4.4.3 River Meuse -- 4.4.4 UK Rivers -- 4.4.5 Scandinavian Rivers -- 4.5ƒConclusions -- References -- Future Climate Change -- 5 Projected Change-Atmosphere -- Abstract -- 5.1ƒIntroduction -- 5.2ƒLarge-Scale Circulation -- 5.2.1 Prominent Climate Phenomena -- 5.2.2 Modes of Interannual Variability -- 5.2.3 Atmospheric Blocking -- 5.2.4 Sea-Level Pressure -- 5.2.5 Jet Stream -- 5.2.6 Summary -- 5.3ƒTemperature -- 5.3.1 Global Mean Temperature -- 5.3.2 Regional Mean Temperatures -- 5.3.3 Temperature Extremes -- 5.4ƒPrecipitation -- 5.4.1 Mean Precipitation -- 5.4.2 Precipitation Extremes -- 5.5ƒCyclones and Winds -- 5.5.1 Cyclones -- 5.5.2 Mean Wind Speeds -- 5.5.3 Wind Extremes -- 5.5.4 Wind Direction -- 5.6ƒRadiation and Clouds -- 5.6.1 Solar Radiation -- 5.6.2 Terrestrial Radiation -- 5.6.3 Cloud Cover -- 5.6.4 Summary -- 5.7ƒConclusions -- References -- 6 Projected Change-North Sea -- Abstract -- 6.1ƒIntroduction -- 6.2ƒSea Level, Storm Surges and Surface Waves -- 6.2.1 Time-Mean Sea Level Change -- 6.2.2 Range in Global Time-Mean Sea Level Changes -- 6.2.3 High-End Estimates of Time-Mean Global Sea Level Change -- 6.2.4 Time-Mean Sea Level Projections for Europe -- 6.2.5 Future Changes in Extreme Sea Level -- 6.2.6 Future Changes in Waves -- 6.3ƒOcean Dynamics and Hydrography -- 6.3.1 General Aspects and Methodology -- 6.3.2 Changes in Temperature -- 6.3.3 Changes in Salinity.

8.5.1 Trends in Number of Breeding Birds.

1.6.2.1 Communities, Food Webs and the Seasonal Cycle -- 1.6.2.2 Impacts of Stratification and Mixing -- 1.6.2.3 Carbon and Nutrient Cycles -- 1.6.2.4 Production and Biomass -- 1.6.3 Current Status and Threats -- 1.6.3.1 Eutrophication -- 1.6.3.2 Harmful Algal Blooms -- 1.6.3.3 Offshore Oil and Gas -- 1.6.3.4 Renewable Energy -- 1.6.3.5 Fisheries -- 1.6.3.6 Contaminants -- 1.6.3.7 Tourism -- 1.6.3.8 Ports -- 1.6.3.9 Non-indigenous Species -- 1.6.3.10 Climate Change -- 1.7ƒTerrestrial Coastal Range Vegetation -- 1.7.1 Natural Vegetation -- 1.7.1.1 Salt Marshes -- 1.7.1.2 Dunes -- 1.7.1.3 Moors (Bogs) -- 1.7.1.4 Tundra and Alpine Vegetation -- 1.7.1.5 Forests -- 1.7.2 Semi-natural Vegetation -- 1.7.2.1 Heathlands -- 1.7.2.2 Grasslands -- 1.7.3 Agricultural Areas -- 1.7.4 Artificial Surfaces -- References -- Recent Climate Change (Past 200 Years) -- 2 Recent Change-Atmosphere -- Abstract -- 2.1ƒIntroduction -- 2.2ƒLarge-Scale Circulation -- 2.2.1 Circulation Over the North Sea Region in a Climatological Perspective -- 2.2.2 NAO and AO -- 2.2.3 Temporal and Spatial Changes in the NAO -- 2.2.4 Other Modes of Variability -- 2.2.5 Summary -- 2.3ƒAtmospheric Pressure and Wind -- 2.3.1 Atmospheric Circulation and Wind Since Around 1950 -- 2.3.1.1 North Sea Region -- 2.3.1.2 Northern North Atlantic Region -- 2.3.1.3 Southern North Atlantic Region -- 2.3.2 Regional Variations in Pressure and Wind Since Around 1800 -- 2.3.2.1 North Atlantic and Iceland -- 2.3.2.2 British Isles -- 2.3.2.3 North Sea Region -- 2.3.2.4 Northern Alps and Central Europe -- 2.3.3 Trends in the 20th Century Reanalysis Since 1871 -- 2.3.4 Summary -- 2.4ƒSurface Air Temperature -- 2.4.1 Terrestrial Surface Air Temperature -- 2.4.2 Number of Frost Days and Summer Days -- 2.4.3 Night Marine Air Temperature -- 2.4.4 Comparison of Land and Marine Air Temperatures -- 2.4.5 Summary.

2.5ƒPrecipitation -- 2.5.1 Precipitation Over Land in the North Sea Region -- 2.5.2 Precipitation Over the North Sea -- 2.5.3 Summary -- 2.6ƒRadiative Properties -- 2.6.1 Clouds -- 2.6.2 Solar Radiation -- 2.6.3 Sunshine Duration -- 2.6.4 Summary -- 2.7ƒSummary and Open Questions -- References -- 3 Recent Change-North Sea -- Abstract -- 3.1ƒIntroduction -- 3.2ƒTemperature, Salinity and Stratification -- 3.2.1 Historical Perspective -- 3.2.2 Temperature Variability and Trends -- 3.2.2.1 Northeast Atlantic -- 3.2.2.2 North Sea -- 3.2.2.3 Regional Variations -- 3.2.3 Salinity Variability and Trends -- 3.2.3.1 Northeast Atlantic -- 3.2.3.2 North Sea -- 3.2.4 Stratification Variability and Trends -- 3.3ƒCurrents and Circulation -- 3.3.1 Historical Perspective -- 3.3.2 Circulation: Variability and Trends -- 3.4ƒMean Sea Level -- 3.5ƒExtreme Sea Levels -- 3.6ƒCarbon Dioxide, pH, and Nutrients -- 3.6.1 Observed Responses to Variable External Forcing -- 3.6.2 Model-Based Interannual Variations in Nitrogen Fluxes -- 3.6.3 Ocean Acidification and Eutrophication -- 3.6.4 Variability on Longer Time Scales -- 3.7ƒOxygen -- 3.8ƒSuspended Particulate Matter and Turbidity -- 3.8.1 Sources in the North Sea -- 3.8.2 Overall Distribution -- 3.8.3 Tidal Influence -- 3.8.4 Wave Effects -- 3.8.5 Impact of Stratification -- 3.8.6 Seasonal Variability -- 3.8.7 Interannual and Long-Term Variability -- 3.9ƒCoastal Erosion, Sedimentation and Morphology -- 3.9.1 Historical Perspective -- 3.9.2 Understanding Coastal Erosion: State, Variability and Trends -- 3.9.3 Offshore Morphology -- 3.9.3.1 History and Evidence -- 3.9.3.2 Features -- 3.9.3.3 Dynamics -- 3.9.3.4 Evolution in Relation to Climate -- 3.10ƒSea Ice -- 3.11ƒWadden Sea -- 3.11.1 Background -- 3.11.2 Suspended Matter Dynamics -- 3.11.3 Changes in Nutrient and Organic Matter Dynamics -- 3.11.4 Contaminants.

3.11.5 Relevance of Climate Change -- 3.12ƒSummary -- Acknowledgments -- References -- 4 Recent Change-River Flow -- Abstract -- 4.1ƒIntroduction -- 4.2ƒDetecting and Attributing Trends -- 4.3ƒObserved Changes in Annual and Seasonal Flow -- 4.3.1 River Rhine -- 4.3.2 River Elbe -- 4.3.3 River Meuse -- 4.3.4 UK Rivers -- 4.3.5 Scandinavian Rivers -- 4.3.6 Inflow from the Baltic Sea -- 4.4ƒObserved Changes in Peak Flow and Low Flow -- 4.4.1 River Rhine -- 4.4.2 River Elbe -- 4.4.3 River Meuse -- 4.4.4 UK Rivers -- 4.4.5 Scandinavian Rivers -- 4.5ƒConclusions -- References -- Future Climate Change -- 5 Projected Change-Atmosphere -- Abstract -- 5.1ƒIntroduction -- 5.2ƒLarge-Scale Circulation -- 5.2.1 Prominent Climate Phenomena -- 5.2.2 Modes of Interannual Variability -- 5.2.3 Atmospheric Blocking -- 5.2.4 Sea-Level Pressure -- 5.2.5 Jet Stream -- 5.2.6 Summary -- 5.3ƒTemperature -- 5.3.1 Global Mean Temperature -- 5.3.2 Regional Mean Temperatures -- 5.3.3 Temperature Extremes -- 5.4ƒPrecipitation -- 5.4.1 Mean Precipitation -- 5.4.2 Precipitation Extremes -- 5.5ƒCyclones and Winds -- 5.5.1 Cyclones -- 5.5.2 Mean Wind Speeds -- 5.5.3 Wind Extremes -- 5.5.4 Wind Direction -- 5.6ƒRadiation and Clouds -- 5.6.1 Solar Radiation -- 5.6.2 Terrestrial Radiation -- 5.6.3 Cloud Cover -- 5.6.4 Summary -- 5.7ƒConclusions -- References -- 6 Projected Change-North Sea -- Abstract -- 6.1ƒIntroduction -- 6.2ƒSea Level, Storm Surges and Surface Waves -- 6.2.1 Time-Mean Sea Level Change -- 6.2.2 Range in Global Time-Mean Sea Level Changes -- 6.2.3 High-End Estimates of Time-Mean Global Sea Level Change -- 6.2.4 Time-Mean Sea Level Projections for Europe -- 6.2.5 Future Changes in Extreme Sea Level -- 6.2.6 Future Changes in Waves -- 6.3ƒOcean Dynamics and Hydrography -- 6.3.1 General Aspects and Methodology -- 6.3.2 Changes in Temperature -- 6.3.3 Changes in Salinity.

6.3.4 Changes in Stratification -- 6.3.5 Changes in Transport and Circulation -- 6.4ƒPrimary Production, Ocean Biogeochemistry, Ocean Acidification -- 6.4.1 Primary Production and Eutrophication -- 6.4.2 Species Composition and Trophic Coupling -- 6.4.3 Ocean Acidification -- 6.5ƒConclusions and Recommendations -- 6.5.1 Robustness and Uncertainties -- 6.5.2 Future Challenges -- References -- 7 Projected Change-River Flow and Urban Drainage -- Abstract -- 7.1ƒIntroduction -- 7.2ƒMethodology -- 7.2.1 Temporal and Spatial Scales -- 7.2.2 Analysis -- 7.2.3 Scenarios -- 7.3ƒProjections -- 7.3.1 North Sea Region -- 7.3.2 Sub-region or Country-Scale -- 7.3.2.1 Belgium -- 7.3.2.2 Northern France -- 7.3.2.3 Germany -- 7.3.2.4 Ireland -- 7.3.2.5 Scandinavia -- 7.3.2.6 UK -- 7.3.2.7 Comment on Low Flows -- 7.3.2.8 Estuaries -- 7.3.2.9 Overview -- 7.3.3 Urban Catchments -- 7.4ƒConclusion -- References -- Impacts of Recent and Future Climate Change on Ecosystems -- 8 Environmental Impacts-Marine Ecosystems -- Abstract -- 8.1ƒIntroduction -- 8.2ƒPlankton -- 8.2.1 Bottom-Up and Top-Down Control -- 8.2.2 Climate and Changes in Phytoplankton Abundance and Phenology -- 8.2.3 Climate Impacts on Biogeographic Boundaries and Biodiversity of Zooplankton -- 8.2.4 Regime Shift in the North Sea Plankton Community -- 8.2.5 Long-Term Changes in Zooplankton -- 8.3ƒBenthos -- 8.3.1 Spatial Patterns -- 8.3.2 Climate-Driven Temporal Trends -- 8.3.3 Climate Impacts on Intertidal Species on Rocky Shores -- 8.3.4 Changes in Wadden Sea Intertidal Macrofauna Communities and Climate -- 8.4ƒFish -- 8.4.1 Long-Term Change in Fish Fauna -- 8.4.2 Recent Effects of Climate Change on Fish -- 8.4.3 Growth, Phenology and Behaviour -- 8.4.4 Distribution -- 8.4.5 Recruitment -- 8.4.6 Prediction -- 8.4.7 Climate and Fish Fauna in the Dutch Wadden Sea -- 8.5ƒSeabirds.

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