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EB

ONLINE

Cham : Springer International Publishing AG, 2017

1 online resource (203 pages)

ISBN 9783319654331 (electronic bk.)

ISBN 9783319654324

Demographic Research Monographs

Print version: Burch, Thomas K. Model-Based Demography Cham : Springer International Publishing AG,c2017 ISBN 9783319654324

Intro -- Preface -- References -- Acknowledgments -- Contents -- Part I: A Model-Based View of Demography -- Chapter 1: Demography in a New Key: A Theory of Population Theory -- 1.1 Introduction -- 1.2 Some Demographic Models Revisited -- 1.3 Demography Reconsidered -- 1.4 Conclusion -- References -- Chapter 2: Data, Models, Theory and Reality: The Structure of Demographic Knowledge -- 2.1 Introduction -- 2.2 The Methodology of Ansley J. Coale -- 2.3 Nathan Keyfitz on the Fruitfulness of Abstract Modelling -- 2.4 A Model-Based View of Science -- 2.5 Elements of Science -- 2.6 Assessing Scientific Knowledge -- 2.7 Coda: On the Dangers of Dichotomies -- References -- Chapter 3: Computer Modeling of Theory: Explanation for the Twenty-First Century -- 3.1 Introduction -- 3.2 Explanation as Logical Inference -- 3.3 The Origins of Theoretical Ideas Are Irrelevant -- 3.4 Towards More Complexity -- 3.5 Manipulating Complex Systems -- 3.6 Relating Theoretical Models to the Real World -- 3.7 Concluding Comment -- References -- Chapter 4: Computer Simulation and Statistical Modeling: Rivals or Complements? -- 4.1 Introduction -- 4.2 Analytic Tools and Their Disparate Uses -- 4.3 Modeling Data and Modeling Ideas About the Real World -- 4.4 Hybrids and Mixed Forms: Revisiting the Dichotomies -- 4.5 Concluding Comments -- References -- Chapter 5: Does Demography Need Differential Equations? -- 5.1 Introduction -- 5.2 Predator-Prey and Other Differential Equations in Demographic Literature -- 5.3 Lotkas Patrimony -- 5.4 Lotka the Human Demographer -- 5.5 Lotka the Theorist -- 5.6 Abbot on Coleman vs. Blalock -- 5.7 Systems Dynamics Software -- 5.8 Concluding Comment -- References -- Part II: Some Demographic Models Re-visited -- Chapter 6: Theory, Computers and the Parameterization of Demographic Behavior -- 6.1 Introduction -- 6.2 The Coale-McNeil Model.

6.3 The Hernes Model -- 6.4 Canonization Versus Relative Neglect -- 6.5 The Sociology of Demography -- 6.6 Afterthoughts and Updates -- References -- Chapter 7: Estimating the Goodman, Keyfitz and Pullum Kinship Equations: An Alternative Procedure -- 7.1 Introduction -- 7.2 Estimating Kin Numbers -- 7.3 Discussion -- Appendices -- Appendix A: Tablecurve Output for Fit of Survival Curve -- Appendix B: Facsimile of Mathcad Worksheet for Kin Numbers -- References -- Chapter 8: The Life Table as a Theoretical Model -- 8.1 Introduction -- 8.2 Another Perspective on Life Tables -- 8.3 From Measurement to Simulation -- 8.4 Modeling as Theory -- References -- Chapter 9: Cohort Component Projection: Algorithm, Technique, Model and Theory -- 9.1 Introduction -- 9.2 Anatole Romaniuc on Population Projections -- 9.3 Towards Rethinking Demography -- References -- Chapter 10: The Cohort-Component Population Projection: A Strange Attractor for Demographers -- 10.1 Introduction -- 10.2 The Cohort-Component Population Projection Model: An Overview -- 10.3 The Many Strengths of the CPP Model -- 10.4 Easy Mathematics -- 10.5 Demographers and Mathematics -- 10.6 Some Further Questions -- 10.7 Conclusion -- References -- Part III: Teaching Demography -- Chapter 11: Teaching Demography: Ten Principles and Two Rationales -- 11.1 Introduction -- 11.2 Ten Principles for Teaching Demography -- 11.2.1 Teaching and Texts in Other Disciplines -- 11.3 A Philosophical Rationale -- 11.4 Concluding Comments -- References -- Chapter 12: Teaching the Fundamentals of Demography: A Model-Based Approach to Fertility -- 12.1 Introduction -- 12.2 Some Concrete Examples of Abstract Fertility Models -- 12.3 Towards More Complex Models -- 12.4 Concluding Comments -- References -- Chapter 13: On Teaching Demography: Some Non-traditional Guidelines -- 13.1 Introduction.

13.2 Logical Empiricism -- 13.3 An Alternative to Logical Empiricism -- 13.4 Questioning the Formal/Behavioral Distinction -- 13.5 Concluding Comment -- 13.6 Ten Principles for Teaching Basic Demography -- References -- Part IV: Conclusion -- Chapter 14: Concluding Thoughts -- References -- Index.

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Part I A Model-Based View of Demography // 1 Demography in a New Key: A Theory of Population Theory 3 // 1.1 Introduction 3 // 1.2 Some Demographic Models Revisited 9 // 1.3 Demography Reconsidered 13 // 1.4 Conclusion 16 // References 18 // 2 Data, Models, Theory and Reality: The Structure // of Demographic Knowledge 21 // 2.1 Introduction 21 // 2.2 The Methodology of Ansley J. Coale 23 // 2.3 Nathan Keyfitz on the Fruitfulness of Abstract Modelling. 29 // 2.4 A Model-Based View of Science 30 // 2.5 Elements of Science 34 // 2.6 Assessing Scientific Knowledge 37 // 2.7 Coda: On the Dangers of Dichotomies 39 // References 41 // 3 Computer Modeling of Theory: Explanation // for the Twenty-First Century 43 // 3.1 Introduction 43 // 3.2 Explanation as Logical Inference 47 // 3.3 The Origins of Theoretical Ideas Are Irrelevant 51 // 3.4 Towards More Complexity 52 // 3.5 Manipulating Complex Systems 54 // 3.6 Relating Theoretical Models to the Real World 55 // 3.7 Concluding Comment 62 // References 63 // XV // xvi // Contents // 4 Computer Simulation and Statistical Modeling: Rivals or // Complements? 67 // 4.1 Introduction 67 // 4.2 Analytic Tools and Their Disparate Uses 68 // 4.3 Modeling Data and Modeling Ideas About the Real World 71 // 4.4 Hybrids and Mixed Forms: Revisiting the Dichotomies 73 // 4.5 Concluding Comments 74 // References 75 // 5 Does Demography Need Differential Equations? 79 // 5.1 Introduction 79 // 5.2 Predator-Prey and Other Differential Equations // in Demographic Literature 81 // 5.3 Lotka’s Patrimony 82 // 5.4 Lotka the Human Demographer 84 // 5.5 Lotka the Theorist 84 // 5.6 Abbot on Coleman vs. Blalock 86 // 5.7 Systems Dynamics Software 88 // 5.8 Concluding Comment 92 // References 93 //

Part II Some Demographic Models Re-visited 6 Theory, Computers and the Parameterization of Demographic Behavior 97 // 6.1 Introduction 97 // 6.2 The Coale-McNeil Model 98 // 6.3 The Hemes Model 99 // 6.4 Canonization Versus Relative Neglect 100 // 6.5 The Sociology of Demography 103 // 6.6 Afterthoughts and Updates 107 // References 109 // 7 Estimating the Goodman, Keyfitz and Pullum Kinship Equations: An Alternative Procedure 111 // 7.1 Introduction 111 // 7.2 Estimating Kin Numbers 115 // 7.3 Discussion 115 // References 119 // 8 The Life Table as a Theoretical Model 121 // 8.1 Introduction 121 // 8.2 Another Perspective on Life Tables 122 // 8.3 From Measurement to Simulation 123 // 8.4 Modeling as Theory 125 // References 127 // Part IV Conclusion // 14 Concluding Thoughts // References // Index

(Au-PeEL)EBL6422881

(MiAaPQ)EBC6422881

(OCoLC)1231607493