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EB

ONLINE

Cham : Springer International Publishing AG, 2021

1 online resource (429 pages)

ISBN 9783030465902 (electronic bk.)

ISBN 9783030465896

Print version: Cilliers, Jakkie The Future of Africa Cham : Springer International Publishing AG,c2021 ISBN 9783030465896

Further Reading -- 5 Wanted: A Revolution in Agriculture -- After Independence -- Agriculture Today.

Africa’s Approaching Health Transition -- Urbanisation and Health Services -- Current Path: Access to Basic Infrastructure -- Modelling the Impact of Better Health and WASH Infrastructure: The Improved Health Scenario -- Impact on Disability Adjusted Life Years -- Conclusion: Planning Comprehensively and Long-Term -- Further Reading -- 4 Getting to Africa’s Demographic Dividend -- What History Reveals -- The Impact of the Demographic Dividend -- Comparing Niger, Egypt, Japan and Sweden -- Africa’s Slow Demographic Transition -- The Peak and Length of the Demographic Dividend -- The Potential Benefits of Reducing Fertility Rates -- The Components of the Demographic Dividend Scenario -- Scenario Impact on Global Population -- Impact of the Demographic Dividend on Africa -- Conclusion: Reducing Fertility Rates and Working Towards Africa’s Demographic Dividend ---

Further Reading -- 5 Wanted: A Revolution in Agriculture -- After Independence -- Agriculture Today.

The Future of Africa -- Preface and Acknowledgments -- Contents -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- 1 The Growing Gap -- The Growing Income Divergence -- South Korea and Ghana -- The Importance of Labour and Demographics -- Productivity and Economic Structure -- The Global Context -- Dealing with Africa’s Diversity-Using Country Income Groups -- Previous Studies and the International Futures Forecasting Platform -- Structure of the Book -- Further Reading -- 2 Africa’s Current Path -- From Brundtland to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) -- The Impact of the Structural Adjustment Programmes -- Africa’s Growing Dependence on Commodities -- The Challenges of Commodities-Dependent Growth -- Rising Debt Levels -- The Third Wave of Democratisation in Africa -- Africa’s Slow Pace of Urbanisation -- The Current Path Scenario -- 3 Health -- The Impact of HIV and AIDS ---

Africa as a Climate Change Taker -- The Global Energy Transition -- Carbon Emissions and Energy in Africa -- The Impact of Climate Change -- Comparing Carbon Emissions in Different Scenarios -- Responding to Climate Change -- Development as a Coping and Planning Mechanism -- Conclusion: Finding an Environmentally Sustainable Pathway -- Further Reading -- 16 Closing the Gap -- Prospects in the Close the Gap Scenario -- GDP Per Capita in the Close the Gap Scenario -- Size of Economies in the Close the Gap Scenario -- Extreme Poverty in the Close the Gap Scenario -- Carbon Emissions in the Close the Gap Scenario -- Structural Change of Economies in the Close the Gap Scenario -- Comparing the Impact of Individual Scenarios Over Time -- Scenario Comparison Using Income Per Person as Key Indicator ---

From GATT to the Decline of Multilateralism -- The Impact of Preferential Access: Everything But Arms and AGOA -- Africa’s Shifting Trade Relations with the Rest of the World -- Intra-African Trade and Efforts at Advancing Regional Integration -- The Need for Connecting Infrastructure-And the Challenge of Non-Tariff Barriers -- Perspectives on the Promise of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) -- The Potential Impact of AfCFTA? -- Modelling the Impact of Regional Economic Integration: The Africa Free Trade Area Scenario -- Conclusion: Advancing Africa’s Trade -- Further Reading -- 12 Prospects for Greater Peace -- Trends in Conflict -- Africa’s Leadership in Conflict Prevention and Management -- Changing Characteristics of Organised Violence -- More Riots -- Structural Drivers of Violence ---

Regime Capacity, Type and Regime Dissonance -- Youth and Unemployment -- Poor Governance and High Levels of Inequality -- Modelling the Prospects for Greater Peace: The Silencing the Guns Scenario -- Conclusion: Focusing on Conflict Prevention -- Further Reading.

13 Good Governance, Democracy and Development -- The State of Democracy in Africa -- Is Democracy Making a Difference to Development Prospects in Africa? -- The Realities of Neopatrimonialism in Africa -- The Role of Leadership in Development -- Modelling the Impact of More Democracy: The Fourth Wave of Democracy Scenario -- Conclusion: Promoting Democracy, State Capacity and Human Development -- Further Reading -- 14 Aid, Remittances and Foreign Direct Investment -- The Shifting Global Aid Landscape -- Leveraging Foreign Direct Investment for Africa -- China’s Growing Footprint in Africa -- Remittance Flows to Africa -- Modelling Increased FDI, Aid and Remittances: The External Support Scenario -- The Impact of the Combined External Support Scenario -- Conclusion: Unlocking Foreign Assistance -- Further Reading -- 15 Climate Change ---

Index.

Africa as a Climate Change Taker -- The Global Energy Transition -- Carbon Emissions and Energy in Africa -- The Impact of Climate Change -- Comparing Carbon Emissions in Different Scenarios -- Responding to Climate Change -- Development as a Coping and Planning Mechanism -- Conclusion: Finding an Environmentally Sustainable Pathway -- Further Reading -- 16 Closing the Gap -- Prospects in the Close the Gap Scenario -- GDP Per Capita in the Close the Gap Scenario -- Size of Economies in the Close the Gap Scenario -- Extreme Poverty in the Close the Gap Scenario -- Carbon Emissions in the Close the Gap Scenario -- Structural Change of Economies in the Close the Gap Scenario -- Comparing the Impact of Individual Scenarios Over Time -- Scenario Comparison Using Income Per Person as Key Indicator ---

Costs and Benefits of a Manufacturing Pathway -- Conclusion: Promoting and Intensifying Local Production and Trade -- Further Reading -- 9 The Future of Work in Africa -- Trends in Employment.

From GATT to the Decline of Multilateralism -- The Impact of Preferential Access: Everything But Arms and AGOA -- Africa’s Shifting Trade Relations with the Rest of the World -- Intra-African Trade and Efforts at Advancing Regional Integration -- The Need for Connecting Infrastructure-And the Challenge of Non-Tariff Barriers -- Perspectives on the Promise of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) -- The Potential Impact of AfCFTA? -- Modelling the Impact of Regional Economic Integration: The Africa Free Trade Area Scenario -- Conclusion: Advancing Africa’s Trade -- Further Reading -- 12 Prospects for Greater Peace -- Trends in Conflict -- Africa’s Leadership in Conflict Prevention and Management -- Changing Characteristics of Organised Violence -- More Riots -- Structural Drivers of Violence ---

Globalisation and the Sense of Relative Deprivation -- The Interplay Between Inequality and Growth -- The SDGs and Measuring Extreme Poverty -- The Impact of the Additional Poverty Lines -- The Current Situation in Africa -- The Potential of Social Grants to Reduce Poverty -- The Promise of an African Welfare State? -- Modelling the Impact of Using Tax Revenues for Social Grants: The Social Grants for Africa Scenario -- Conclusion: Reducing Poverty Through Rapid and Inclusive Economic Growth -- Further Reading -- 8 Changing Productive Structures -- The Contribution of Services to Growth -- The Impact of the Diffusion of Knowledge -- Manufacturing in Africa -- Composition of African Economies -- Industrialisation and Growth in Africa -- Modelling the Impact of Industrialisation: The Made in Africa Scenario ---

Regime Capacity, Type and Regime Dissonance -- Youth and Unemployment -- Poor Governance and High Levels of Inequality -- Modelling the Prospects for Greater Peace: The Silencing the Guns Scenario -- Conclusion: Focusing on Conflict Prevention -- Further Reading.

Scenario Comparison Using Progress with the Human Development Index, Inequality and Extreme Poverty -- What Is Possible? A Comparison with China -- A Passion for Knowledge and Development -- In Conclusion -- Further Reading.

13 Good Governance, Democracy and Development -- The State of Democracy in Africa -- Is Democracy Making a Difference to Development Prospects in Africa? -- The Realities of Neopatrimonialism in Africa -- The Role of Leadership in Development -- Modelling the Impact of More Democracy: The Fourth Wave of Democracy Scenario -- Conclusion: Promoting Democracy, State Capacity and Human Development -- Further Reading -- 14 Aid, Remittances and Foreign Direct Investment -- The Shifting Global Aid Landscape -- Leveraging Foreign Direct Investment for Africa -- China’s Growing Footprint in Africa -- Remittance Flows to Africa -- Modelling Increased FDI, Aid and Remittances: The External Support Scenario -- The Impact of the Combined External Support Scenario -- Conclusion: Unlocking Foreign Assistance -- Further Reading -- 15 Climate Change ---

Automation and the Threat to Work -- The Impact of Digitisation in Ghana -- The Promise of Greater Economic Formalisation in Ghana -- Conclusion: Thinking Differently About the Future -- Further Reading -- 10 Technological Innovation and the Power of Leapfrogging -- The Shale and Tight Oil Revolution in the USA -- The Potential of Renewable Energy in Africa -- The Challenge of Energy Storage (Power-to-X) -- Mobile Phones and Access to the Internet-A Big Leap for Africa -- M-Pesa and Innovation in Mobile Banking -- Mobile Phones and Social Change -- Formalising the Informal Sector -- Modelling the Impact of Improved Electricity Access, ICT and Digitisation: The Leapfrogging Scenario -- Conclusion: Harnessing Technology for the Future -- Further Reading -- 11 Trade and Growth ---

Obstacles to a Revolution in Agriculture -- Achieving Food Security -- The Challenge for the Future -- Lessons from Elsewhere -- Modelling a Coordinated Push on Africa’s Agricultural Sector: The African Agriculture Revolution Scenario -- The Contributions from Technology and Innovation -- Conclusion: Aiming at Food Security and Growth -- Further Reading -- 6 Boosting Education -- Recent Education Trends in Africa -- Comparing Education in Africa with Other Regions -- The Low Quality of Education in Africa -- Rates of Gender Exclusion -- Africa’s Future Education Requirements -- Modelling the Impact of Improved Quality, Quantity and Nature of Education Across Gender: The Boosting Education Scenario -- From Basics to Technology -- Conclusion: Prioritising Education Outcomes -- Further Reading -- 7 Poverty, Inequality and Growth ---

001895534

express

(Au-PeEL)EBL6536801

(MiAaPQ)EBC6536801

(OCoLC)1246552625