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Cham : Springer International Publishing AG, 2021

1 online resource (472 pages)

ISBN 9783030730659 (electronic bk.)

ISBN 9783030730642

Print version: Goerres, Achim Global Political Demography Cham : Springer International Publishing AG,c2021 ISBN 9783030730642

9 The African Continent: Frustrated Youth as a Simmering Threat to Political Order -- 10 The Asian Continent: Population Giants on the Move -- 11 Political Demography as a Perspective on Global Challenges -- References -- 2 Migration in Political Demography: A Review of Evidence -- 1 Introduction: The Problem Stated -- 2 Populations, Migrations and Political Development: Broad Perspectives -- 3 Migration and the Creation of the State: The Exclusionary Dimension -- 4 Migration and the Creation of the State: The Inclusionary Dimension -- 5 Migration and the Transformation of the State -- 6 Conclusion: Towards More Systematic Approaches to Migration in Political Demography -- References -- 3 Youthful Age Structures and the Risks of Revolutionary and Separatist Conflicts -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Theory -- 2.1 The Youth Bulge Hypothesis ---

2.2 Hypotheses -- 3 Methods -- 3.1 The Sample -- 3.2 Temporal Extent of Data -- 3.3 Outcome Variables -- 3.4 Independent Variables.

9 The African Continent: Frustrated Youth as a Simmering Threat to Political Order -- 10 The Asian Continent: Population Giants on the Move -- 11 Political Demography as a Perspective on Global Challenges -- References -- 2 Migration in Political Demography: A Review of Evidence -- 1 Introduction: The Problem Stated -- 2 Populations, Migrations and Political Development: Broad Perspectives -- 3 Migration and the Creation of the State: The Exclusionary Dimension -- 4 Migration and the Creation of the State: The Inclusionary Dimension -- 5 Migration and the Transformation of the State -- 6 Conclusion: Towards More Systematic Approaches to Migration in Political Demography -- References -- 3 Youthful Age Structures and the Risks of Revolutionary and Separatist Conflicts -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Theory -- 2.1 The Youth Bulge Hypothesis ---

Intro -- Preface -- About This Book -- Contents -- Contributors -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- 1 Introduction: Political Demography as an Analytical Window on Our World -- 1 Why We Need a Political Demography Lens -- 2 Demographic Megatrends: Global Political Game Changers -- 3 Grey Power and Voting: Pro-Elderly Policy Bias and the Rise of Gerontocracy? -- 4 Putting the Global Political Demography Database to Work -- 4.1 The Age Composition of Societies -- 4.2 International Migration -- 4.3 Patterns of Covariation Between Population and Political Indicators -- 5 Globally Crosscutting Themes of Political Demography: Migration, Religion and Age Profiles -- 6 The ’Old’ Continent: Is the European Phoenix Going Back to Ashes? -- 7 The Politics of Routine Mass Immigration: Australia and New Zealand -- 8 The Ever-Diverging American Continent ---

12 The Politics of Demography in Unequal Societies: Argentina and Brazil Compared -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Migration and Ethnicity -- 2.1 Migration -- 2.2 Ethnicity -- 3 Urbanization and Class Division -- 3.1 Urbanization -- 3.2 Socially Fractured Cities -- 3.3 Inequality -- 4 Population Ageing -- 5 Conclusion -- References -- 13 Intergenerational Controversy and Cultural Clashes: Political Consequences of Demographic Change in the US and Canada Since 1990 -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Demographic Context -- 3 Economic Clout -- 4 Mobilization Capacity -- 5 Institutions -- 6 Rhetoric -- 7 Conclusion -- References -- 14 Population Ageing, Immigration and the Welfare State: The Political Demography in Western Europe -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Population Ageing in Western Europe -- 3 The Challenges of Population Ageing for the Welfare State ---

4 Changing Pension and Family Policies in Italy, Germany and Sweden -- 5 Migration, Public Attitudes and the Welfare State -- 6 Conclusion -- References.

15 The Political Demography of Missed Opportunity: Populations and Policies in a Younger but Faster-Ageing East Central Europe, 1990-2040 -- 1 Political Demography in Postcommunist Europe: A Long Demographic Window of Opportunity, Now Closed -- 2 "Pensioners’ Welfare States" on the Path to Premature Pro-elderly Bias: Political Push Before Demographic Pull -- 3 Pension Policies: The Belated Closing of Early Labour Market Exit Windows -- 4 Pro-Family Policy as a Belated Remedy for Lower Fertility? -- 5 A Belated Active Ageing Policy Paradigm? -- 6 Conclusions: The Pervasive Political Failure to Prepare for the Demographic Elephant-on-the-Move -- References -- 16 Combating Low Life Expectancy and Low Fertility in Tumultuous Political Times: A Comparison of the Ukraine, Russia and Belarus -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Demographic Trends and Political Entanglement -- 3 Declining Fertility Rate and Government Responses -- 3.1 Belarus -- 3.2 Russia -- 3.3 Ukraine -- 4 Political Determinants of Pension Reforms -- 4.1 Belarus -- 4.2 Russia -- 4.3 Ukraine -- 5 Understanding Migration Politics -- 5.1 Belarus -- 5.2 Russia -- 5.3 Ukraine -- 6 Conclusion -- References -- 17 Epilogue: Global Political Demography-A Depressing Outlook? -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Demographic Challenges -- Demographic Responses -- 3 Into the 2020s: Going from Bad to Worse? -- 4 A Multidimensional, Intersectional Approach -- References -- Index.

7 Consequences of Demographic Changes for Regime Stability and Legitimacy -- 8 Conclusions -- References -- 11 It Is All About the Numbers of Immigrants: Population and Politics in Australia and New Zealand -- 1 Introduction: Recent Demographic Trends in Australia and New Zealand -- 2 Background: The Period to 1991 -- 3 Fertility as an Object of Policy Since 1991 -- 3.1 The Rationale of Australian Migration Policy Is Changed-The 1990s -- 3.2 Formal Migration Since 1991 -- 4 The Politics of Regular International Migration in Australia Since 1991 -- 4.1 Discrimination on the Basis of Race -- 4.2 Environment, Infrastructure and the Economy -- 5 The Politics of Irregular International Migration -- 6 Public Opinion on Australia’s Immigration Policy -- 7 The Contemporary Situation -- 8 Conclusion -- References ---

12 The Politics of Demography in Unequal Societies: Argentina and Brazil Compared -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Migration and Ethnicity -- 2.1 Migration -- 2.2 Ethnicity -- 3 Urbanization and Class Division -- 3.1 Urbanization -- 3.2 Socially Fractured Cities -- 3.3 Inequality -- 4 Population Ageing -- 5 Conclusion -- References -- 13 Intergenerational Controversy and Cultural Clashes: Political Consequences of Demographic Change in the US and Canada Since 1990 -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Demographic Context -- 3 Economic Clout -- 4 Mobilization Capacity -- 5 Institutions -- 6 Rhetoric -- 7 Conclusion -- References -- 14 Population Ageing, Immigration and the Welfare State: The Political Demography in Western Europe -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Population Ageing in Western Europe -- 3 The Challenges of Population Ageing for the Welfare State ---

3 Young People’s Social and Economic Circumstances -- 4 Waithood -- 5 Migration -- 6 Do Morocco and Tunisia Face a Youth-Related Crisis Nowadays?.

4 Changing Pension and Family Policies in Italy, Germany and Sweden -- 5 Migration, Public Attitudes and the Welfare State -- 6 Conclusion -- References.

Voter Mobilization and Turnout -- 4 Public Policies of Population Ageing -- 5 Immigration -- 6 Conclusion -- References -- 9 Demographic Change and Political Order in Sub-Saharan Africa: How Cote d’Ivoire and Uganda Deal with Youth Bulge and Politicized Migration -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Demographic Change in Uganda and Cote d’Ivoire -- 2.1 Demographic Trends -- 2.2 Youth Unemployment -- 2.3 Institutional Responses to Demographic Change -- 3 Demographic Change, Political Participation and Youth Violence -- 3.1 Formal Political Engagement -- 3.2 Youth-Specific Mobilization -- 3.3 Youth Violence and Civil War -- 4 Conclusion -- References -- 10 The Maghreb Region: Waithood, the Myth of Youth Bulges and the Reality of Frustrated Aspirations -- 1 Introduction: Political Demography in Tunisia and Morocco -- 2 Demographic Trends in Morocco and Tunisia ---

15 The Political Demography of Missed Opportunity: Populations and Policies in a Younger but Faster-Ageing East Central Europe, 1990-2040 -- 1 Political Demography in Postcommunist Europe: A Long Demographic Window of Opportunity, Now Closed -- 2 "Pensioners’ Welfare States" on the Path to Premature Pro-elderly Bias: Political Push Before Demographic Pull -- 3 Pension Policies: The Belated Closing of Early Labour Market Exit Windows -- 4 Pro-Family Policy as a Belated Remedy for Lower Fertility? -- 5 A Belated Active Ageing Policy Paradigm? -- 6 Conclusions: The Pervasive Political Failure to Prepare for the Demographic Elephant-on-the-Move -- References -- 16 Combating Low Life Expectancy and Low Fertility in Tumultuous Political Times: A Comparison of the Ukraine, Russia and Belarus -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Demographic Trends and Political Entanglement -- 3 Declining Fertility Rate and Government Responses -- 3.1 Belarus -- 3.2 Russia -- 3.3 Ukraine -- 4 Political Determinants of Pension Reforms -- 4.1 Belarus -- 4.2 Russia -- 4.3 Ukraine -- 5 Understanding Migration Politics -- 5.1 Belarus -- 5.2 Russia -- 5.3 Ukraine -- 6 Conclusion -- References -- 17 Epilogue: Global Political Demography-A Depressing Outlook? -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Demographic Challenges -- Demographic Responses -- 3 Into the 2020s: Going from Bad to Worse? -- 4 A Multidimensional, Intersectional Approach -- References -- Index.

3.5 Age-Structural Models Versus Extended Models -- 3.6 Alternative Independent Variables -- 4 Results -- 4.1 Age-Structural Models: Revolutionary Conflict Hypotheses -- 4.2 Age-Structural Models: Separatist Conflict Hypotheses -- 4.3 Models with Fixed Effects -- 5 Looking Back: A Discrete Test of the Models -- 5.1 Revolutionary Conflict -- 5.2 Separatist Conflict -- 6 Looking Forward: A Forecast of Trends in Revolutionary Conflict -- 7 Conclusions -- 7.1 Discussion: The Persistence of Separatist Conflict -- 7.2 Outlook: Intrastate Conflict’s Future -- 7.3 Future Research -- References -- 4 Poverty and Religious Affiliation Worldwide, 1970-2010 -- 1 Introduction: Poor Man’s Religion? -- 2 Religion and Poverty -- 3 Data and Methods -- 3.1 Religious Affiliation Data -- 4 Findings and Discussion -- 5 Conclusion -- References -- 5 Ageing China: The People’s Republic of China, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan -- 1 Introduction -- 2 The People’s Republic in the Post-Mao Era: Constructing a Modern Socialist Society -- 2.1 Macao -- 2.2 Hong Kong -- 2.3 Taiwan -- 3 CCP Counter-Measures: Post-2013 Top-Level Coordination -- 4 Narrating and Framing the Reforms -- 5 Conclusions and Outlook -- References -- 6 Demographic Politics in Asia’s Super-Size Democracies: India, Bangladesh and Pakistan -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Demographic Profile and Changes, 1990-2040 -- 3 Factors Leading to Demographic Change -- 4 Regional and Religious Demographic Diversity -- 4.1 India: Countries Within a Country -- 4.2 Pakistan: Regional Diversity with Religious Homogeneity -- 4.3 Bangladesh: Densely Populated -- Sparsely Heterogeneous -- 5 The Political Repercussion of Demographic Change -- 5.1 Age Structure and Voting Pattern -- 5.2 Regional Diversity and Constitutional Politics -- 5.3 Religious and Caste Diversity -- 6 Conclusion -- References.

7 Consequences of Demographic Changes for Regime Stability and Legitimacy -- 8 Conclusions -- References -- 11 It Is All About the Numbers of Immigrants: Population and Politics in Australia and New Zealand -- 1 Introduction: Recent Demographic Trends in Australia and New Zealand -- 2 Background: The Period to 1991 -- 3 Fertility as an Object of Policy Since 1991 -- 3.1 The Rationale of Australian Migration Policy Is Changed-The 1990s -- 3.2 Formal Migration Since 1991 -- 4 The Politics of Regular International Migration in Australia Since 1991 -- 4.1 Discrimination on the Basis of Race -- 4.2 Environment, Infrastructure and the Economy -- 5 The Politics of Irregular International Migration -- 6 Public Opinion on Australia’s Immigration Policy -- 7 The Contemporary Situation -- 8 Conclusion -- References ---

7 Getting Old Before Getting Rich (and not Fully Realizing It): Premature Ageing and the Demographic Momentum in Southeast Asia -- 1 Introduction: Political Demography in Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines -- 2 Demographic Trends, 1990-2040 -- 3 Reasons for the Demographic Developments -- 4 Political Implications of the Demographic Changes: The Illusions of Demographic Momentum? -- 4.1 Pension Systems and Retirement Age -- 4.2 The Demographic Dividend and Youth Unemployment -- 4.3 Migration and Urbanization -- 4.4 Regional, Ethnic and Religious Differences of Population Growth -- 5 Conclusion: The Risk of Premature Ageing -- References -- 8 The Oldest Societies in Asia: The Politics of Ageing in South Korea and Japan -- 1 General Demographic Development -- 2 Political Institutions -- 3 Demographic Change, Political Power & ---

001895891

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(Au-PeEL)EBL6696599

(MiAaPQ)EBC6696599

(OCoLC)1313883118