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EB

ONLINE

1st ed.

Canberra : ANU Press, 2021

1 online resource (248 pages)

ISBN 9781760464530 (electronic bk.)

ISBN 9781760464523

China Update Ser.

Print version: Song, Ligang China’s Challenges in Moving Towards a High-Income Economy Canberra : ANU Press,c2021 ISBN 9781760464523

Intro -- List of figures -- Figure 1.1 Fixed-asset investment in three types of industries as a share of total investment in China (1996-2020) -- Figure 1.2 R& -- D intensity and R& -- D personnel intensity in various economies -- Figure 1.3 Major countries in patent applications in 2018 -- Figure 1.4 China’s population by age group as share of total population, 1990-2020 (per cent) -- Figure 2.1 Stage of development versus economic growth -- Figure 2.2 Income distribution and stages of development -- Figure 2.3 Trends in labour migration -- Figure 2.4 Educational attainment and occupational upgrading by age -- Figure 3.1 China’s agricultural trade, 1978-2018 (millions of US) -- Figure 3.2 China’s share of global agricultural exports and imports, 1978-2018 (per cent) -- Figure 3.3 Production support and trade protection in China, OECD countries and non-OECD countries, 1995-2015 -- Figure 3.4 Changes in the structure of China’s agricultural trade, 1978-2018 -- Figure 3.5 Value of China’s imports and exports of major agricultural products, 1978-2018 -- Figure 3.6 Regional distribution of China’s agricultural exports and imports, 2018 -- Figure 3.7 China’s imports of soybeans and beef, by region (thousand metric tonnes) -- Figure 3.8 The RCA index of major agricultural products in China, 1978-2018 -- Figure 3.9 RTA indices of China’s major agricultural products, 1978-2018 -- Figure 3.10 RCA and RTA indices of cereal crops for China and other major producers, 1998-2018 -- Figure 3.11 RCA and RTA indices of economic crops for China and other major producers, 1998-2018 -- Figure 3.12 RCA and RTA indices of livestock products for China and other major producers, 1998-2018 -- Figure 3.13 OBC coefficients for agricultural commodities between China and the world’s major producers, 2012-18 -- Figure 4.1 Changes in China’s urbanisation rate, 1949-1978.

Figure 4.2 Changes in China’s urbanisation rate, 1978-2000 -- Figure 4.3 Changes in China’s urbanisation rate, 2001-2011 -- Figure 4.4 Changes in China’s industrial structure, 2001-2011 -- Figure 4.5 Changes in China’s urbanisation rate, 2012-2019 -- Figure 4.6 Changes in China’s industrial structure, 2012-2019 -- Figure 4.7 Urban population and urbanisation rate in China, 1949-2018 -- Figure 4.8 Urban and built-up areas in China, 2004-2019 -- Figure 4.9 Number of China’s prefecture-level cities, 2000-2019 -- Figure 4.10 Changes in China’s urban per capita housing area, 1978-2019 -- Figure 4.11 The number of Chinese urban residents participating in pension insurance and basic medical insurance, 1989-2019 -- Figure 4.12(a) The spatial expansion of Shanghai City, 1991 -- Figure 4.12(b) The spatial expansion of Shanghai City, 2000 -- Figure 4.12(c) The spatial expansion of Shanghai City, 2015 -- Figure 4.13 China’s income inequality index and the proportion of inequality of opportunity -- Figure 5.1 Tax enforcement and the Laffer curve -- Figure 5.2 Changes in fiscal pressure and average effective VAT rate (comparison before and after reform) -- Figure 5.3 Changes in fiscal pressure and variance of the effective VAT rate (comparison before and after reform) -- Figure 5.4 Changes in fiscal pressure and aggregate TFP (comparison before and after reform) -- Figure 5.5 Dynamic effect of fiscal pressure and variance of the effective VAT rate -- Figure 5.6 Dynamic effect of fiscal pressure and aggregate LOG(TFP) (covariance of OP) -- Figure 6.1 R& -- D expenditure and number of full-time-equivalent R& -- D researchers -- Figure 6.2 Patent applications -- Figure 6.3 Share of enterprises (above designated size) conducting product, process, organisational and marketing innovation, by industry, 2018 (per cent).

Table 6.3 Regression results with capital and labour -- Table 6.4 Summary statistics -- Table 6.5 Industry estimation results -- Table 6.6 Industry estimation results: Process innovation -- Table 6.7 Industry estimation results: Marketing and organisational innovation -- Table 8.1 Benchmark model regression -- Table 8.2 Parallel trend test -- Table 8.3 Regression with mixed-pattern firms -- Table 8.4 Robustness test for region and industry characteristics -- Table 8.5 Robustness test for pretreatment trend and other coexistent policies -- Table 8.6 Heterogeneity test with location -- Table 8.7 Heterogeneity test regarding firm status -- Table 8.8 Heterogeneity test by region and trade mode -- Table 8.9 Heterogeneity by firm status -- Table 9.1 Currency names and their corresponding symbols -- Table 9.2 UIP regressions for the offshore renminbi against major currencies -- Table 9.3 UIP regressions for the offshore renminbi against the currencies of countries along the BRI -- Table 9.4 Augmented UIP regressions for the offshore renminbi against major currencies -- Table 9.5 Augmented UIP regressions for the offshore renminbi against the currencies of countries along the BRI -- Contributors -- Acknowledgements -- 1. Challenges and roadmaps for moving towards a high‑income economy -- 2. Tackling social challenges to avoid the middle-income trap -- 3. China’s agricultural trade: A global comparative advantage perspective -- 4. China’s urbanisation in the new technological revolution -- 5. Revenue-neutral tax reform in China -- 6. Innovation and its growth effects in China -- 7. Conditions in China’s corporate sector -- 8. The transformation and upgrading of processing trade and its impact on firms’ productivity -- 9. The renminbi’s status as a safe‑haven currency -- Index.

Figure 4.2 Changes in China’s urbanisation rate, 1978-2000 -- Figure 4.3 Changes in China’s urbanisation rate, 2001-2011 -- Figure 4.4 Changes in China’s industrial structure, 2001-2011 -- Figure 4.5 Changes in China’s urbanisation rate, 2012-2019 -- Figure 4.6 Changes in China’s industrial structure, 2012-2019 -- Figure 4.7 Urban population and urbanisation rate in China, 1949-2018 -- Figure 4.8 Urban and built-up areas in China, 2004-2019 -- Figure 4.9 Number of China’s prefecture-level cities, 2000-2019 -- Figure 4.10 Changes in China’s urban per capita housing area, 1978-2019 -- Figure 4.11 The number of Chinese urban residents participating in pension insurance and basic medical insurance, 1989-2019 -- Figure 4.12(a) The spatial expansion of Shanghai City, 1991 -- Figure 4.12(b) The spatial expansion of Shanghai City, 2000 -- Figure 4.12(c) The spatial expansion of Shanghai City, 2015 -- Figure 4.13 China’s income inequality index and the proportion of inequality of opportunity -- Figure 5.1 Tax enforcement and the Laffer curve -- Figure 5.2 Changes in fiscal pressure and average effective VAT rate (comparison before and after reform) -- Figure 5.3 Changes in fiscal pressure and variance of the effective VAT rate (comparison before and after reform) -- Figure 5.4 Changes in fiscal pressure and aggregate TFP (comparison before and after reform) -- Figure 5.5 Dynamic effect of fiscal pressure and variance of the effective VAT rate -- Figure 5.6 Dynamic effect of fiscal pressure and aggregate LOG(TFP) (covariance of OP) -- Figure 6.1 R& -- D expenditure and number of full-time-equivalent R& -- D researchers -- Figure 6.2 Patent applications -- Figure 6.3 Share of enterprises (above designated size) conducting product, process, organisational and marketing innovation, by industry, 2018 (per cent).

Figure 6.4 Distributions of the number of new-product projects, 2011-2018 -- Figure 7.1 Industrial sector financial indicators -- Figure 7.2 Industrial sector profitability -- Figure 7.3 Listed company profitability (return on equity) -- Figure 7.4 Exports -- Figure 7.5 Industrial employment -- Figure 7.6 Listed company leverage (debt to equity) -- Figure 7.7 Listed real estate company leverage -- Figure 7.8 Loan growth and demand -- Figure 7.9 Listed company implied interest rates -- Figure 7.10 Industrial sector accounts receivable average payback -- Figure 7.11 Listed company direct government subsidies -- Figure 8.1 Proportions of processing trade and ordinary trade in total exports -- Figure 8.2 Productivity growth trend of different types of exporters: Processing trade versus ordinary trade (per cent) -- Figure 9.1 The dynamic path of the relationship between the bilateral exchange rate changes of the offshore renminbi relative to major currencies and global risk factors -- Figure 9.2 The dynamic path of the relationship between the bilateral exchange rate changes of the offshore renminbi relative to the currencies of the BRI countries and global risk factors -- List of tables -- Table 2.1 Differential treatment in the urban labour market -- Table 3.1 RCA and the corresponding level of trade comparative advantage -- Table 3.2 Self-sufficiency ratio of China’s major agricultural products in 2025, 2035 and 2050 -- Appendix Table 3.1 -- Table 4.1 Characteristics of and problems with the three stages of urbanisation -- Table 5.1 Descriptive statistics of variables -- Table 5.2 Fiscal pressure and variance of the effective VAT rate -- Table 5.3 Fiscal pressure and aggregate LOG(TFP) (OP covariance) -- Table 5.4 The impact of fiscal pressure on the actual VAT rate and factors of production -- Table 6.1 Unit root tests -- Table 6.2 Regression results.

Table 6.3 Regression results with capital and labour -- Table 6.4 Summary statistics -- Table 6.5 Industry estimation results -- Table 6.6 Industry estimation results: Process innovation -- Table 6.7 Industry estimation results: Marketing and organisational innovation -- Table 8.1 Benchmark model regression -- Table 8.2 Parallel trend test -- Table 8.3 Regression with mixed-pattern firms -- Table 8.4 Robustness test for region and industry characteristics -- Table 8.5 Robustness test for pretreatment trend and other coexistent policies -- Table 8.6 Heterogeneity test with location -- Table 8.7 Heterogeneity test regarding firm status -- Table 8.8 Heterogeneity test by region and trade mode -- Table 8.9 Heterogeneity by firm status -- Table 9.1 Currency names and their corresponding symbols -- Table 9.2 UIP regressions for the offshore renminbi against major currencies -- Table 9.3 UIP regressions for the offshore renminbi against the currencies of countries along the BRI -- Table 9.4 Augmented UIP regressions for the offshore renminbi against major currencies -- Table 9.5 Augmented UIP regressions for the offshore renminbi against the currencies of countries along the BRI -- Contributors -- Acknowledgements -- 1. Challenges and roadmaps for moving towards a high‑income economy -- 2. Tackling social challenges to avoid the middle-income trap -- 3. China’s agricultural trade: A global comparative advantage perspective -- 4. China’s urbanisation in the new technological revolution -- 5. Revenue-neutral tax reform in China -- 6. Innovation and its growth effects in China -- 7. Conditions in China’s corporate sector -- 8. The transformation and upgrading of processing trade and its impact on firms’ productivity -- 9. The renminbi’s status as a safe‑haven currency -- Index.

With its per capita income surpassing US10,000, China has now drawn up ambitious plans to further lift its income to the level of developed countries. Yet various constraints need to be overcome if China is to build on the achievements of the last 40 years and further boost its growth potential..

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